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by Martin Fleischmann
If you have decided to trade stocks, it is very important to arm yourself with
enough knowledge to make informed, intelligent decisions. How much
money you want to commit to the stock market is a function of your total
wealth, your investment time horizon, and your willingness to deal with risk
(both financially and emotionally). But once you make the
determination of how much to put at risk in the hopes of gain, your odds
of success in selecting stocks that appreciate in value is related to how
much you know about how the market values companies.
The value of a company's stock is
usually determined by a number of factors:
earnings, revenues, cash flow, equity, dividends, and not least
importantly, growth rates. Most valuation experts look particularly
hard at
earnings and assets, and how fast the earning are growing or are expected
to grow. A good indication of a quality
pick is the price/earnings (P/E) ratio. This shows the relationship
between the market capitalization (shown on a per share basis by the stock price) and the earnings of the
company (also often shown on a per share basis).
The
P/E ratio is often a
useful measure of whether any stock is overpriced, fairly priced, or
underpriced relative to a company's money-making potential. As a
rule of thumb, the P/E ratio
of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate of
earnings. In general, a P/E ratio that's half the growth rate can be very
positive, and one that's twice the growth rate can be very negative.
You can check a company's historical record on P/E's,
check S&P reports. Track several years to get a feel for normal P/E
levels, but keep in mind that past performance does not necessarily
guarantee future results. And these
rules of thumb for P/E ratios apply well to stable companies with a long
history of earnings.
Some
people think that in these days of new Internet companies with
sky-high valuations and no earnings, the P/E ratio isn't as
meaningful. Actually, it still is, it's only that investors
are much more concerned with future, potential earnings with
these new companies. Since the future earnings are hard to
estimate, analysts have started looking at other measures like
revenue growth and audience reach, which they hope will equate to
market position and eventually earnings potential. This
difficulty in forecasting is what makes Internet stock prices so
volatile, as new alliances, new competitors, new methods of
analysis, and market emotion drastically change the consensus
opinions on who the winners will be. |
Back to more traditional company
measures. Cash flow and equity are next to evaluate. Check out the company's
balance sheet. A typical balance sheet shows 75 percent equity and 25
percent debt. A higher equity and lower debt percentage may indicate a
stronger company (certainly a more conservative one), while a lower equity and
a higher debt percentage might
be cause for concern, or at least further analysis.
For the extra income, stocks which provide dividends are often
preferred over non-dividend paying ones. Electric utilities and telephone
utilities are the major dividend payers. However, Lynch suggests the real
issue should be analyzing how the dividend, or the lack of a dividend,
affects the value of a company and the price of its stock over time.
Milton Freidman, Nobel prize-winning economist and founder of the Chicago
School of Economics, proved mathematically that over the long term, there
is no difference in value between stocks that pay dividends and those that
don't. So you can think of a dividend as taking your growth up front.
You may have your own set of criteria to determine what stocks
you'll select. By all means, use any and all tools necessary to make a
conscientious, well-planned, well-researched decision. Watch the markets
on a daily basis. Watch your stock selections in particular. Read as much
as you can about the company.
And don't forget to use the Internet as part of your investigation.
Consider the planning time before you purchase stock as part of your
overall investment. After all, it's your money. |